Emerging Risks in the Arctic

The Arctic is facing an evolving and increasingly complex risk landscape, driven by rapid environmental, economic and societal changes

In 2022, the Norwegian Coastal Administration commissioned DNV Group AS to develop a summary report on emerging risks in the Arctic, an overview mapping of present and future risk landscape. The report includes present risk status and future developments for ten selected thematic areas, followed by suggested mitigating actions. The identified emerging risks in the report are covered under themes related to climate, biodiversity, pollution, exploitation of natural resources, emergency prevention, preparedness, and response, Arctic Peoples’ livelihoods and cultures, security, shipping, green economy, and political risks.

While the DNV report offers an overview over a broad range of themes, not all of them are necessarily relevant for Arctic Council’s and EPPR’s mandates and strategic plans, and some relevant emerging risks might require further examination and data from other sources. The objective of the project was to use the commissioned Norwegian report as a starting point assisting in identifying emerging risks that EPPR should take into consideration in its work moving forward. Through this project the goal was to develop a reader friendly and EPPR specific overview of future Arctic risk and hazard landscape including maps and graphics with an intro and a conclusion. The product is aimed to be important for communicating emerging risks in the Arctic from emergency preparedness perspective but is also expected to be an important background resource to guide EPPR’s future strategic planning and work priorities.

The project resulted in the report Emering Risks in the Arctic that identifies key emerging risks, reviews existing response measures, and explores options to safeguard the Arctic’s unique ecosystems, and support its communities in the face of rapid environmental and socio-economic change.

The project leads were the Norwegian Coastal Administration and GRID Arendal (UNEP).